In one of the closest watched political matches of 2025, Wisconsin's Republican former state attorney general and Waukesha County judge appears to hold a slim edge over his liberal opponent in a race that could determine ideological control of the Badger State's high court.
According to a poll released Jan. 30, conservative Brad Schimel is leading Democrat Dane County Judge Susan Crawford in the race to replace retiring liberal State Supreme Court Justice Ann Walsh Bradley.
According to the poll released by the Institute for Reforming Government, 40% of voters surveyed indicated they intended to vote for Schimel, compared to 35% for Crawford.
The poll reported 23% of surveyed voters were yet undecided.
Further, the IIRG poll reports that 91% of voters said they want state Supreme Court justices "to make decisions based on the Constitution and law, not their own political preferences."
And 52% said they "intend to select the candidate that cares about issues important to them."
The IIRG poll was conducted in partnership with the Napolitan News Service. The poll surveyed 800 registered voters in Wisconsin from January 17-21, 2025. The poll reported a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
According to its website, the Delafield, Wisconsin-based IIRG describes itself as an organization "that seeks to simplify government at every level by offering policy solutions to thought leaders in American government in the areas of tax reform, government inefficiency and burdensome regulations."
The poll is among the first to publicly take voters' temperature amid the hotly contested race that could determine the ideological composition of the state high court for many years to come.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court has drawn intense interest within the state and beyond, given that court's ability to shape the legal landscape in one of the country's most key swing states.
In the last three presidential elections, Wisconsin has stood as one of America's most predictive battlegrounds, handing victories to President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024, while favoring former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Within the closely politically divided state, as its ideological composition has shifted in recent years, the state Supreme Court has also vacillated in its holdings on key political and social issues, notably including abortion, voting rights, ballot collection and counting rules, and labor laws.
Most recently, for instance, the court's liberal majority overturned a state appellate court's decision that a conservative group could have access to certain state voting records, as the group sought to verify that voters were legally casting ballots and state voter rolls were being properly maintained.
Currently, the state is awaiting a decision from the state high court over the constitutionality of its abortion ban law.
And last summer, the Wisconsin Supreme Court's liberal majority declared election authorities could again use ballot dropboxes to collect ballots in the 2024 election.
Republicans had sought to end the practice, asserting it facilitated vote fraud and could allow Democrats to steal close elections.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde had particularly criticized their use during the run-up to the 2024 fall general election. Hovde narrowly lost to incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who used late arriving ballots to eke out a win, even as Trump carried the state in the race for President.
According to the IIRG poll, 49% of Wisconsin voters believe such "mobile voting units" either "create a risk of election fraud" or provide advantages to some candidates or parties "and should be banned."
Further, 50% of surveyed voters said they "don't approve of the liberal Supreme Court reversing the recent drop box ruling."
The consequential nature of the court's ideological composition drew millions of dollars in campaign donations from outside the state in past elections.
In the 2023 contest between current Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz and Republican Daniel Kelly, Illinois' outspoken left-wing billionaire Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker notably donated $20,000 directly to Protasiewicz and $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party, in an apparent bid to aid the Democratic effort to claim control of the Wisconsin high court.
Prior to Protasiewicz's 2023 win, conservatives controlled the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Under their guidance, the state high court had proven to be a stumbling block for the policies of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and other Democratic officials and initiatives in the state.
Other findings in the IIRG survey include:
- 76% of voters believe "voters and their elected officials" should have the power to "overturn regulations;"
- 27% of voters want a new Supreme Court justice to be "tough on crime;"
- 46% said the state high court should "overturn the abortion ban and allow abortions up to 20 weeks;"
- 47% of voters favored Act 10, the Wisconsin state law that ended most collective bargaining for teachers and other government employees. 37% opposed Act 10; and
- 43% said they either strongly or somewhat support Wisconsin's school choice program, compared to 34% who strongly or somewhat oppose the program.